In his 1979 book Boca’s Brain, the late Karl Sagan wrote, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” That aphorism is often called the Sagan standard or ECREE. I believe Sagan was guilty of making extraordinary claims that he couldn’t prove, but we’ve discussed that before. The truth is that people are often guilty of believing extraordinary claims despite the evidence.
An extreme example of rejecting clear evidence to believe extraordinary claims is Mike Hughes, who died in 2020 while attempting to “prove” that the Earth is flat. Some say he didn’t really believe the Earth is flat but used it as a publicity stunt. What reasons, besides a desire for publicity, could cause someone to reject evidence? Psychologists suggest that cognitive biases play a role. If you expect something to be true, you might dismiss evidence that suggests otherwise.
Another reason for believing extraordinary claims despite the evidence is social influence. If loved ones or admired figures hold those beliefs, it becomes easier to accept something that contradicts the evidence. Conspiracy theories are often embraced by those surrounded by a community of fellow conspiracy believers.
A common reason for believing something extraordinary is that your personal experience has led you to believe it is true. The flat Earth concept may seem reasonable when you stand outside and look around. Does this look like a sphere to you? Do you trust what others tell you, or your own eyes? Strange experiences, hallucinations, or psychoactive drugs can also lead someone to accept an extraordinary claim.
Extraordinary beliefs aren’t inherently good or bad. Scientists challenging the status quo—such as questioning the evidence supporting neo-Darwinism—can lead to new insights. Carl Sagan’s statement, “The cosmos is all there is or was or ever will be,” (from his TV series), cannot be backed by extraordinary evidence. It’s a philosophical statement, not a scientific fact. In fact, science can’t prove that God does not exist, and increasing evidence of fine-tuning points toward an intelligence behind creation.
Both scientists and believers in God should avoid letting social dynamics and peer pressure shape their beliefs. Carefully examine the evidence for what you believe and avoid falling into the trap of believing extraordinary claims despite the evidence.
— Roland Earnst © 2026
